Low-Cost Attacks Challenge U.S. Navy

Photo: Al Jazeera

By Kevin Policarpo

IN THIS REPORT:

Lessons from Ukraine and the Red Sea
Weapons Development Problems: Hypersonic Missiles
Strategy to Help Defend Taiwan?
High Cost of Conventional Weapons
Stress
Possible Future Solutions: Energy Weapons
Updating US Navy Surface Ship Tactics Against Drones
Conclusion

The U.S. Navy, seen as the strongest naval force in the world, is facing a troubled future. New developments in weapons and drone technology have pushed the Navy to reconsider multiple factors from their tactics and operations to weapon systems. Recent events in the Red Sea and in Ukraine have put into question whether the U.S. Navy can maintain naval superiority in the 21st Century.

Lessons from Ukraine and the Red Sea

The Red Sea has become a battleground between U.S. and allied naval forces and the Houthi rebels in Yemen over control of one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world: the Suez Canal. The rebels have carried out constant attacks on commercial shipping via anti-ship missiles and kamikaze drones. These attacks have forced commercial ships to divert around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.

U.S. Navy warships have deployed to the Red Sea as part of a coalition of nations defending against the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. The U.S. has contributed the majority of warships to the operation, including several destroyers and an aircraft carrier to counter Houthi drone and missile attacks. While the ships have been performing their mission in protecting cargo ships, the combat has brought to light multiple concerning topics for the U.S. Navy.

The main concern drawn from these clashes is the cost exchange ratio in downing Houthi attacks with U.S. missiles. New Lines Magazine reported on July 29th, 2024, that Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante testified before a Senate subcommittee in May 2024 that:

“If we’re shooting down a $50,000 one-way drone with a $3 million missile, that’s not a good cost equation…”

The attacks made by the Houthis have been to provoke greater responses from the Western nations who are protecting freedom of the seas.

Michael Allen, a former White House national policy specialist, noted if the coalition remains in a defensive posture, missiles will get through and damage or sink ships and kill mariners.

Any potential escalation from the West could further destabilize Yemen due to concerns about US-led retaliatory strikes and their effects on civilians.

The Red Sea clashes are being watched closely by America’s rivals, Russia and China, who have been observing how the U.S. Navy responds to attacks by rockets and, increasingly, by unmanned drones.

Meanwhile in Ukraine, the Ukrainians have been using USVs (unmanned surface vehicles) to conduct attacks on Russian warships. These attacks have damaged or sunk several warships and forced the Russians to relocate the Black Sea Fleet far from their bases in Crimea.

In Ukraine and the Red Sea, the use and development of cheap drones is showing how low-cost weapons and tactics can affect modern naval warfare.

A report in Defense and Security Monitor noted:

“Strategists around the world have taken note of the changing dynamics at play in the Black Sea and the potential implications for flashpoints elsewhere, for it is no small feat for a small coastal military to effectively deny naval space to a much larger foe, as Ukraine has done. Russia is experimenting with its own USVs, which could be used for detecting and neutralizing Ukrainian ones. Analysts in China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) penned an article in January 2024 highlighting the threat of USVs in combat, demonstrating a keen interest in the Black Sea conflict that is likely reflective of opinions further up the chain in PLAN leadership.”

Weapons Development Problems: Hypersonic Missiles

There is growing concern about what many see as the anachronistic state of U.S. military procurement. Despite having the largest military budget in the world, many U.S. weapons projects tend to be canceled due to decisions made at the top and the slow, inflexible status of procurement. Whenever a new weapon is developed, it goes through almost indefinite amounts of testing to refine it. This causes the weapon to be stuck in development as new threats evolve, eventually causing the weapon to be canceled.

One such field of weaponry the U.S. has been struggling in is the development of hypersonic weapons. Despite having spent over $12 billion dollars since 2018, the Pentagon hasn’t successfully fielded an operational system.

Testing failures in the U.S. Army’s and Air Forces’ hypersonic missile programs had caused plans to make them operational in September of 2022 and 2023 respectively to be scrapped. This contrasts with Russia and China having deployed their own hypersonic weapons with the former using them in their war with Ukraine.

A Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit released on July 29th, 2024 stated that:

“The Department of Defense is working to quickly develop hypersonic weapons, which are capable of moving at least 5 times the speed of sound and have unpredictable flight paths that could give the military a tactical advantage.

Most of DOD’s efforts to develop hypersonic weapons aren’t using modern digital engineering tools, such as virtual representations of physical products. By not following this leading practice, they won’t benefit from the tools’ advantages, such as speeding up the schedules for prototypes and making it easier to incorporate changes based on user feedback.

We recommended addressing this and applying other leading practices.”

The audit stated the Pentagon’s failures of communicating to Congress and the public on its difficulties in developing hypersonic weapons. The GAO stated in the audit that “…although the Defense Department ‘does provide some information to lawmakers,’ better communicating risks is ‘important because of the additional transparency expected by Congress, taxpayers and other relevant stakeholders…’”

An example of this lack of communication was that the Pentagon stated in June 2024 that the Army’s hypersonic missile had passed a recent test but declined to give any additional information about the importance of the demonstration, Bloomberg reported.

Jeffery McCormick, senior intelligence analyst for the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, told a House Armed Services subcommittee on March 12th, 2024 that China leads in developing, testing and deploying hypersonics, besting Russia as the US works to catch up on the new weapons that travel five times the speed of sound, a senior US defense intelligence analyst says.

The world’s “leading hypersonic arsenal” has resulted from 20 years of China’s efforts “to dramatically advance its development of conventional and nuclear-armed technologies and capabilities through intense and focused investment, development, testing and deployments…”

In December 2023, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante said “… that the United States needs counter uncrewed aerial systems “at scale. We need lots of them, whatever they are — kinetic or non kinetic,” adding that ‘cost per unit matters.’”

He added that the Pentagon needs to be more flexible in appropriating new systems.

Strategy to Help Defend Taiwan?

The methods that are being employed by the Houthis are reminiscent of the new modernization plans being developed by the U.S. Marine Corps. Called Force Design 2030, the plan is for Marine units to be distributed across the Pacific in order to track and block Chinese naval forces.

Hudson Institute senior fellow Bryan Clark notes the similarity with the Houthis’ method of surveillance, launching attacks, then deploying to other locations force the U.S. to spend more resources constantly surveilling and targeting their movements. While lacking in some capabilities to the Marines, Clark stated “… I think it’s an example of the kind of operation that the Marines are trying to pursue… And the Houthis have done it pretty effectively with a much less sophisticated force.”

High Cost of Conventional Weapons

Symptomatic of the new environment is reflected in the Aegis Combat System (ACS). The ACS is a system developed by Lockheed Martin that is “… designed as a complete system: the missile launching element, the computer programs, the radar and the displays are fully integrated to work together. This makes the Aegis system the first fully integrated combat system built to defend against advanced air and surface threats.”

U.S. ships use various long range, mid-range and short range missiles (the SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM), and the RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM)) launched from vertical missile launchers built into the ships.

While the missiles used in the Aegis system by the Navy are quite capable, they are expensive:

RIM-116 RAM (use in standalone launcher or in SeaRAM automated launcher): $950,000
ESSM (Block II): $1,490,000
SM-2 (Block IIIA and IIIB): $2,530,000
SM-6: $4,270,000
SM-3: $12,510,000 (Block IB), $28,700,000 (Block IIA)

Tyler Rogoway in The War Zone concludes: “So if you were to fill an Arleigh Burke destroyer in the Rota configuration, which includes Rolling Airframe Missiles in their self-contained SeaRAM system, with all new weapons, including, let’s say, 11 RAMs, 32 ESSMs, 16 Tomahawks, 40 SM-2s, 12 SM-6, sand eight SM-3s, as well as six VLAs and eight Harpoons, based on these figures, the bill would be around $420 million.”

Stress

Several organizations and groups have been putting together reports on what lessons have been learned from the operations in the Red Sea.

One such report was from the U.S. Naval Institute released in May 2024, Lessons from the Red Sea: Considerations for Naval Strategy in the 21st Century.

The report notes the stress that sailors from U.S. and Allied nations are facing in the Red Sea. Commander Pete Evans of the Royal Navy’s HMS Diamond, which is assisting the U.S.-led operation, noted the mental and physical strain faced by sailors: “The levels of concentration [are] exhausting, long periods of nothing much happening, and then a few really short intense spikes of your life being at risk.”

Crews need time to decompress and for ships to rearm and repair in order to operate at their most efficient, he said.

Possible Future Solutions: Energy Weapons

A potential solution to drone swarms would be energy weapons such as laser and high powered microwaves (HPM).

In comparison to missiles whose cost reaches into the millions, directed energy weapons would be able to shoot down drones at dirt-cheap prices. Due to such weapons only needing to draw energy from the ship’s own generators instead of bullets or missiles, they would have a practically unlimited magazine capacity. Use of energy weapons would also save the more expensive missiles for use against threats they are more optimized to combat.

In a January 9th, 2024 USNI News article, Vice Admiral Brendan McLane argued the importance of fielding lasers and high-powered microwaves on ships to counter drones. He stated: “I really want to put a lot of effort into accelerating [directed energy] because that gives us so much when it comes to magazine capacity and in speed and distance…”

Updating US Navy Surface Ship Tactics Against Drones

Alongside developing new weapons, the US Navy has also been working on new tactics to help minimize the drone threat.

Steven Wells in Defense Opinion (February 12th, 2024) notes a number of lessons that the U.S. Navy should take to heart after witnessing the Russian Naval ship Ivanovets’ poor performance against Ukrainian USVs:

“The battle against uncrewed drones can be where you least expect it, so be prepared accordingly, even if in protected waters.
Deploy crewed or uncrewed aircraft to better view the battlespace. Aviation assets of all types, including small drones, extend a ship’s range of action and can buy time to better defend against drone attacks.
Readiness matters. Ivanovets was an older ship, and sporadic fire from her 30mm close-in weapon system suggested these systems were not fully functional or ready for combat. Maximum readiness of all ship systems is essential to evade and defend against drone attacks.
Additional crew-served weapons can help. A burst of .50 caliber machine gun fire won’t deter a drone the way it might deter a manned speedboat attack, but all the additional firepower a ship can muster could be the difference between a successful defense and sinking. Many installed weapon systems have a minimum range and if drones penetrate inside that there are few other options for self-defense.
Vigilance is essential. Deploy additional lookouts, close up additional watch stations and keep people ready. Every additional set of eyes on the situation could make a difference in detecting a drone attack before it gets too close…”

Conclusion

The conflicts in Ukraine and the Red Sea have shown how warfare can change due to advancements in weaponry, especially at sea. The use of low cost drones, missiles and their associated tactics against warships demonstrates a significant challenge for the U.S. Navy. The current methods of shipboard defense are too expensive for intercepting low-cost munitions, when missiles cost the United States millions of dollars for each interception. With both the stress of combat and limited stocks of missiles available, enemy munitions would eventually get through the Navy’s defenses, damaging U.S. ships and killing mariners.

The United States Marines are learning from the Red Sea and Ukraine experiences and are mounting efforts that could be used to defend U.S. allies in the Pacific.

The United States must change their methods of procurement in order to get the weapons they need sooner and develop more cost-effective defensive methods against drones and cheap missiles. The Navy must also come up with new tactics in order to better counter drones and lessen the damage that such weapons can inflict. If this is not done, the U.S. Navy will suffer significant losses in the next major conflict and put America’s national security at risk.

FOOTNOTES

^[1] https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2024/04/30/what-marines-may-be-learning-from-houthi-tactics-in-the-red-sea/

^[2] https://apnews.com/article/navy-aircraft-carrier-houthis-red-sea-4529fe0d264fe749fb017d78c5cbdefd

^[3] https://newlinesmag.com/argument/cheap-houthi-drones-are-draining-the-pentagons-coffers/

^[4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/10/houthis-call-wests-bluff-with-renewed-red-sea-drone-assault

^[5] https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/06/13/ukraines-usvs-write-new-rules-for-asymmetric-naval-warfare/

^[6] https://gcaptain.com/russian-navy-retreats-from-crimean-ports/

^[7] https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/06/13/ukraines-usvs-write-new-rules-for-asymmetric-naval-warfare/

^[8] https://newlinesmag.com/argument/cheap-houthi-drones-are-draining-the-pentagons-coffers/

^[9]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/pentagon-holding-back-on-hypersonic-weapons-troubles-gao-says?cmpid=BBD072924_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240729&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily

^[10] https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106792

^[11] Ibid.