By Stas Margaronis
Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister of Australia, has a written a book warning China and the United States that the growing conflict between the two nations could result in a war that could have catastrophic implications for one or both countries and possibly for the world:
“In other words, a regional war between China and the United States could trigger truly seismic geopolitical shifts around the world. The profound uncertainty about the consequences of that should give all political leaders pause to reflect on the wisdom of the first line of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War: ‘The Art of War is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin.’”[1]
Rudd, who is fluent in Mandarin, traces the economic rise of China beginning with economic reforms instituted by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping that took effect during the late 1970s and 1980s. As a result of the U.S. desire to foster an alliance with China and isolate the Soviet Union, a period of close cooperation developed that included U.S. investments and technology transfers.
In 2001, China benefited from joining the World Trade Organization which helped China boost exports, increase its trade surpluses and modernize its economy.
Rudd notes that by 2008, with the real estate collapse and recession in the United States, Chinese leaders began to believe that the United States was a country in economic decline that would soon be surpassed by China.
In 2012, Xi Jinping’s accession as China’s leader resulted in a more nationalist and expansionist policy. China also clamped down on human rights in Hong Kong and on the rights of Muslims in the province of Xinjiang.
China also began to use its industrial base to build new ports and harbors linking Asia and Europe as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This creates new market opportunities for China secured by rail and sea links. Under Xi, BRI is expanding China’s international trade routes through the Maritime Silk Road that “charts a course across the Indian Ocean, through the Red Sea, and into the Mediterranean.”[2] The result is 1) building ports with Chinese made cranes manufactured by ZPMC the world’s leading manufacturer of ship to shore cranes 2) transporting freight by ships increasingly built by Chinese shipbuilders such as shipbuilding leader China State Shipbuilding Corporation 3) the circle is completed by often transporting containers on vessels owned by China’s national flag ocean carrier China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO).
But that is not enough.
In recent years, Xi Jinping has become more focused on the reunification of Taiwan with China by whatever means necessary. This is placing China and the United States on a collision course as the prospects of a military conflict increase.
Rudd summarizes Xi’s policies as follows:
“What Xi has done is to make clear that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) has no intention of ever transforming China into a more liberal democratic state. Instead, as we have seen, he is adopting a model of authoritarian capitalism that is more tightly controlled, less market driven, and more mercantilist then his recent predecessors. Beyond all of this, Xi has fanned the flames of an grieved Chinese nationalism that is increasingly explicitly anti-American. Americans see a Chinese leader determined to alter the strategic and territorial status quo in the western Pacific, establish a Chinese sphere of influence across the Eastern hemisphere, and dilute – and eventually remove – America’s military presence from the wider region.”[3]
Rudd warns China’s chances of defeating the United States in a war over Taiwan are increasingly likely but not guaranteed:
“As indicated above, based on the current balance of forces and published reports of the most recent war-gaming by both sides, an American loss, at present, represents the most probably outcome of a full-scale US conventional military intervention in support of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese armed attack on the island.”
However, Rudd argues that the unanticipated consequences of war can be devastating. He recalls the aftermath of World War I was followed by the rise of Communism and Fascism.
If the United States wants to avoid the prospect of defeat in Asia, it must make major changes to its economy and to its foreign policy:
“But if there is no sustained counter strategy from the United States over the next several U.S. administrations that effectively rebuilds American power, reenergizes U.S. alliances, and creates a credible global economic alternative to the long-term gravitational pull of the Chinese market, the overall trend lines appear to favor Xi Jinping’s China.”[4]
However, China must address several serious obstacles that threaten its continued growth:
- Xi’s move to institute more government control over the economy could undermine private sector confidence and market-driven initiatives.
- The impact of an aging Chinese society could reduce consumption, raise higher labor costs and reduce revenues to local and national governments.
- The ability of China to “succeed in closing the semiconductor manufacturing gap between itself and the US and its allies, given that silicon chips underpin the future drivers of the global digital economy and military technology, including the unfolding artificial intelligence revolution.”[5] The successful invasion of Taiwan by China would result in the capture of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world leader in advanced semiconductors. The effect would give China control over supplies that run the digital economies of the world. Such a prospect might trigger a global reaction.
- With such a prospect, China’s leaders may want to consider toning down ultranationalist expansionist policies in favor of more traditional diplomatic and collaborative initiatives.
Rudd argues that the United States and China must find a way to work together. He advocates for “managed strategic competition” where both countries agree to compete without resorting to armed conflict.
One possible means for both countries to work together is in a strategic partnership to fast-track the deployment of a renewable energy economy and a resilienct infrastructure. The reduction of global warming and an infrastructure to counter the impact of storms, flooding and sea level rise may be keys to global survival in the 21st century.
By pooling their resources, China and the United States could not only help their own economies but make renewable and resilient policies and practices available to all nations.
Based on the present state of US-China relations, this prospect may appear to be naïve, but as Rudd argues, the alternative could be a global disaster.
FOOTNOTES
[1] Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping’s China, p.399
[2] Rudd, p.221
[3] Rudd, p.359
[4] Rudd, p.353
[5] Rudd, p. 354